The connection between fossil fuels and climate impacts

Charlie Cox
Published 15 December 2025

Queenslanders are already witnessing the worsening impacts of climate disaster – floods, storms, cyclones, coral bleaching and deadly heatwaves.

The scientific evidence is clear: these are not random extremes but are being supercharged by climate pollution from burning coal, oil and gas. Unless we act - by transitioning rapidly to clean energy, stopping new fossil‑fuel projects, and investing in resilience - our communities, environment and way of life will face escalating harm. Now is the moment to shift course.

Why Queensland is at the frontlines of the climate crisis
  • Queensland is "Australia's most disaster‑prone state," increasingly experiencing what experts call climate‑fuelled disasters. (Climate Council)
  • The National Climate Risk Assessment, released in 2025, highlighted that Queensland communities will be some of the most exposed and affected by climate hazards (NCRA).
The root cause: fossil fuels and their climate pollution
  • Burning coal, oil and gas releases greenhouse gases that trap heat, raising global and ocean temperatures, altering atmospheric moisture, and raising sea levels. This fundamentally changes climate systems.
  • These changes increase the energy available for storms, intensify rainfall and cyclones, worsen heatwaves and fire‑weather, and push marine ecosystems toward heat stress and acidification. 
  • As long as we continue to approve new coal, oil and gas projects and allow fossil-fuel emissions to rise, these risks will not abate. They will continue to grow in frequency and severity. 
Floods and intense rainfall
  • A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, meaning each additional degree of warming increases the moisture capacity (NASA). This fuels heavier, more frequent rain events. 
  • Short‑duration extreme rainfall events (like "rain bombs") have increased by more than 10% in some parts of Australia (Climate Council).
  • These conditions increase flood risk, strain infrastructure, and threaten communities, especially in flood‑prone areas of Queensland.
Cyclones and destructive storms
  • Warmer sea surface temperatures provide more "fuel" for cyclones, making them more intense.
  • Queensland will see a higher proportion of Category 4-5 events (NCRA).
  • Higher seas, stronger winds, elevated storm surges, and heavier rainfall mean cyclones now cause more damage to coastlines and communities than under historical conditions (NCRA). 
  • Recent events such as Tropical Cyclone Alfred highlight this trend - scientists and community groups have warned that fossil-fuel driven climate pollution made the cyclone far more destructive (Climate Council). 
Bushfires
  • Climate change doesn't cause individual fires, but it has increased the occurrence of extreme fire weather making dangerous fires more likely, larger, and more frequent (CSIRO).
  • While annual rainfall has increased in the far west and far north of Queensland, the severity of bushfires has increased in the south and along the coast, with less rainfall and higher temperatures in these regions (State of the Environment 2024).
  • Days with predicted high fire danger conditions are increasing particularly in the south, with fire seasons starting earlier and in some cases finishing later (CSIRO).  
  • These trends are becoming more rapid in recent decades, and climate change projections suggest this is likely to continue.
Heatwaves
  • Human-induced warming has already made many heatwaves far more likely and more intense.
  • Northern and inland Queensland will see longer and more severe heatwaves, driving health risks, energy demand surges and reduced worker productivity. Specifically, Townsville will see heat related mortality rate rise. This is expected to increase by almost 350% in a 3.0°C scenario, but even in the best case scenario, mortality is still expected to rise by almost 100% (NCRA).
  • Extreme heat coupled with the cost of living crisis are impacting the physical and mental health of an increasingly large number of Australians (Sweltering Cities).
Coral bleaching and marine heatwaves
  • Oceans absorb much of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases from fossil‑fuel burning. That heat is driving marine heatwaves, rising sea temperatures, ocean acidification and worsening storms – all of which damage marine ecosystems and the jobs that rely on them. 
  • Corals are very sensitive to heat stress: even a small increase in sea surface temperature sustained over weeks can cause mass bleaching (where corals expel the symbiotic algae that give them colour and energy).
  • The iconic Great Barrier Reef has suffered multiple mass bleaching events in recent years - the warming trend and recurring marine heatwaves are undermining the reef’s ability to survive and recover. 
What this means for Queensland communities

The National Climate Risk Assessment and Regional Impact Statements from the Queensland Government clearly outline the risks:

  • Remote communities: Queensland regional and remote communities face higher exposure to floods, cyclones, bushfires, and heatwaves with limited access to services for recovery.
  • Coastal communities in Queensland will be exposed to increased sea level rise in all scenarios. This could reach over half a metre by 2090. Urban coastal centres and infrastructure hotspots, especially in Queensland, are among the most at-risk areas.
  • Nature: All natural systems will be challenged, with severe impacts expected on ecosystems, driving significant additional risk to public health and safety. Many species will be forced to move, adapt to the new conditions or die out.
  • Homes and insurance: The number of residential buildings at very high risk is expected to increase across all scenarios: 178,000 buildings projected at +1.5°C scenario, 181,000 at +2.0°C, and 185,000 at +3.0°C. This will drive up insurance costs for communities.
  • Jobs: Communities dependent on single industries will face higher risks as production shifts or becomes unviable.
  • Food security: Due to more severe weather events, Queensland will face increased pressure on crops and increased disruption in food distribution networks that could lead to greater food shortages.
  • Agriculture: Regional agricultural communities in Queensland, particularly in the north and along the east coast, can expect longer droughts, more severe heatwaves affecting livestock, disrupted water supplies for irrigation, increased cyclone-related damage to crops and supply chains, and growing risks from pests and diseases, all threatening farm productivity, local jobs, and the economic viability of single-industry towns.
  • Small businesses: Queensland has some of the highest percentages of small businesses located in very high-risk areas. The northern region's sea level rise in 2030 will put over 40% of small businesses at risk.
  • Seaports: Queensland will see increased risks and associated socioeconomic cost of seaports, with Mackay Regional and Gladstone Regional areas having some of the highest expected costs.
The solution
  1. Rapidly reduce emissions from coal, oil and gas to slash climate pollution (here as well as pollution we export overseas) this decade and limit further warming to reduce future disaster severity.
  2. Prioritise renewable energy, clean energy jobs and a just transition away from fossil fuels to protect communities, economy and ecosystems.
  3. Strengthen climate resilience by upgrading infrastructure, adapting planning rules, supporting disaster‑ready communities, and preparing for more frequent extreme weather. 
  4. Protect natural heritage (like the Great Barrier Reef, coastal habitats, ecosystems) to give ecosystems a fighting chance to survive.
Further reading
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